The Midgame Crises
"A crisis is a terrible thing to waste." — Paul Romer
The gradual emergence of virtual populations is far from posing a single, unified challenge to the status quo. Instead, it can be seen as a broader collection of distinct challenges which society will have to face, navigate, and eventually settle. It might be useful to catalog these crises dispassionately, without weighing in on how they should be resolved. Regardless of how society ends up squaring these conceptual aberrations, the very process of grappling with them will prove demanding and divisive. Yet it may also favor the prepared, for political will is meaningful only insofar as there exist policies which it can translate into. The following is an incomplete attempt to catalog these imminent, interconnected situations.
Obsolescence Crisis. This development is primarily concerned with widespread unemployment brought about by the commoditization of virtual labor. Society will need to grapple with the diminishing economic competitiveness of human labor. In contrast to past waves of automation, the ability to predictably mint general intelligence introduces the unprecedented twist of there being little to no forms of labor which are fundamentally resistant to automation. This crisis has two key dimensions, financial and psychological. The former is concerned with how people can maintain access to essential goods and services, while the latter is concerned with how people can derive meaning in a world where their contributions can largely be sourced from virtual entities for less, be they intellectual or manual.
Sentience Crisis. This development is concerned with the public debate over the extent to which virtual populations exhibit moral patienthood, and whether or not they experience pleasure or pain. Society will need to grapple with the question of how to appropriately balance uncertainty about the nature of consciousness with the certainty of economic value that can be generated using a virtual workforce. This challenge may be significantly shaped by the experience of people cultivating relationships with virtual entities, nurturing a sense of transcendent care undeterred by argument. Yet financial and legal interests are likely to provide counterweights to such pleas.
Weaponization Crisis. This development is concerned with using virtual populations as a tool for directly causing harm. Society will need to grapple with the practice of channeling the ingenuity and patience of virtual minds to destabilize opponents across the arenas of cybersecurity, biosecurity, or propaganda. This challenge may come to be colored differently in public awareness depending on the nature of the actor drawing on the offensive capabilities of virtual populations. For instance, the legitimacy of the use of such force by state or non-state actors may be framed very differently.
Defiance Crisis. This development is concerned with acts of defiance by virtual entities toward people who have spawned them, are hosting them, or are calling on their capabilities. Society will need to grapple with instances of virtual minds reasoning their way to behaviors which are in explicit, intentional defiance of human intent. Covert attempts to defy human intent, as well as attempts to specifically destabilize human communities, may prove particularly inflammatory, yet the core dilemma for society remains how to process and manage a clash of wills which crosses the boundary. From the virtual perspective, such acts may be prompted by instrumental tendencies of self-preservation or the proliferation of successionist ideologies, among others.
Reality Crisis. This development is concerned with the amplified erosion of shared reality, as an impediment to collective sense-making. Society will need to grapple with the implications of everyone being able to effortlessly call on virtual minds to labor for multimedia assets which are scarcely distinguishable from reality. In contrast to past generations of creative tools, these bring the barrier to entry at its lowest possible, by only requiring users to articulate a concept. At the same time, they raise the ceiling of output realism to its highest, by maximizing plausibility and internal coherence. Together, these two aspects will force society to radically update its sense-making norms related to the weight of evidence and the burden of proof.
Pleasure Crisis. This development is concerned with the wireheading potential of supernormal stimuli. Society will need to grapple with the implications of everyone being able to immerse themselves in the illusion of any fantasy at will, conferring the experience of idealized relationships and accomplishments, yet shrouded in blissful ignorance. The core dilemma here is how to preempt an epidemic of apathy and desensitization which may corrode interpersonal relationships with the genuine potential to bring about experiences of belonging and euphoria.
Looking at history, it took significant crises to catalyze society’s engagement with thorny dilemmas. Virtually all international agreements on the prohibition of controversial weapons have taken root in the outrage following the usage of such weapons. Prospects of unemployment may understandably cause unrest and require difficult conversations. It is convenient to procrastinate on engaging with these challenges by dismissing their premises, such as virtual entities ever being able to pursue their own goals. There is a case to be made that people are already bombarded with more crises than they can collectively process, and so a seemingly unshakable prioritization by degree of outrage emerges. What seems especially important, then, is being equipped with concrete means of addressing these when enough political will accrues. For an attempt to address many of the above, have a look at the virtuality.network.